2018年全球大事预测(4)

会。供应中断和地缘政治风险因素很可能会持续出现，同时伴随着全球生产商限产。但价格能否保持在70美元或以上水平取决于：在美国页岩油供应不断增长的情况下，俄罗斯是否愿意继续支持沙特阿拉伯牵头的限产努力。参与限产的其他国家也需要继续坚定地遵守协议——随着各国政府受益于油价上涨，继续遵守协议的动力将越来越小。
Anjli Raval
安吉利拉瓦尔(Anjli Raval)
Will a stable and liquid bitcoin futures market develop
会建立起稳定、流动性较强的比特币期货市场吗？
No. One way it could play out: after a tentative start involving lots of trading stops, bitcoin futures will slowly begin to attract institutional money. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data will reflect the extraordinary long bias that exists for the product among money managers. As the huge cost of rolling futures positions becomes self-evident, longs will complain ever more loudly about routine divergences around settlement time. Just as a senate hearing is being scheduled to investigate potential manipulation of the market, futures prices will fall below spot, initiating a sell-off.
不会。事情可能会这样发展：在一次试运营（其间出现多次交易停止）后，比特币期货将慢慢开始吸引机构资金。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的持仓数据将反映出资金管理公司对该产品存在的长期偏见。随着减仓的巨额成本变得不言自明，多头将越来越大声地抱怨围绕结算时间的例行分歧。就在参议院计划举行听证会调查潜在的市场操纵行为时，比特币期货价格将跌破现货价格，引发抛售。
2018年全球大事预测.jpg

Izabella Kaminska

伊莎贝拉卡敏斯卡(Izabella Kaminska)
Will a nation other than Brazil, Germany or Spain win the World Cup
会是除巴西、德国和西班牙之外的国家捧得大力神杯吗？
No. Football punditry is a mug’s game. Better to have the benefit of hindsight. There have been 20 previous World Cups. Of those, Brazil (five titles) and Germany (four), are regular contenders. Home advantage helps, with host nations winning the trophy six times. But next year’s festival of football is being held in Russia, which has the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.
不会。傻子才会去预测足球比赛的结果。最好是作事后诸葛亮。目前已经举办过20届世界杯。其中，巴西（5次捧杯）和德国（4次捧杯）是决赛常客。主场优势有所帮助，东道国赢得了6次奖杯。但是明年的世界杯将在俄罗斯举行，而这位东道主在参赛队伍中排名垫底。