2018年全球大事预测(3)

Jude Webber
裘德韦伯(Jude Webber)
Will Zimbabwe’s new leader hold — and win — fair elections
津巴布韦新任领导人会举行公平的选举并胜选吗？
No. Having ended Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule — with a little help from the army — Emmerson Mnangagwa has promised free elections in 2018. That raises one problem: he could lose. He must at least pretend elections are fair because he needs donor money to help turn the economy around. That would mean electoral reforms, which risk a loss for his unpopular Zanu-PF. Even if Mr Mnangagwa were prepared to roll the electoral dice, it is not clear the army is. Having got their man in, Zimbabwe’s generals are unlikely to allow the public to kick him out.
不会。结束罗伯特穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)长达37年的执政（军方在这件事上也帮了点忙）后，埃默森姆南加古瓦(Emmerson Mnangagwa)承诺在2018年举行自由选举。这引出了一个问题：他可能会输掉大选。他至少要装作选举是公平的，因为他需要政治献金来扭转经济。这将意味着要推行选举改革——可能会让其不受欢迎的非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线(Zanu-PF)输掉选举。即使姆南加古瓦准备好在选举中赌一把，还不清楚军方愿不愿意。已经把自己的人推上台的津巴布韦将军们，不太可能会容许公众再把他踢下去。
David Pilling
戴维皮林(David Pilling)
Will the AT&T/Time Warner merger go through without big remedies (such as the sale of CNN)
AT&T和时代华纳(Time Warner)会在不作出大的妥协（比如出售美国有线新闻网(CNN)）的情况下完成合并吗？
Yes. The government hasn’t won a vertical merger case in decades. According to the Department of Justice’s own review guidelines, “vertical mergers” between content owners like Time Warner and distributors like AT&T are much less worrisome than horizontal ones. Meanwhile, the Fang companies — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google — now dominate the digital entertainment landscape, which makes the government’s argument that the merger of two old-media firms would fundamentally alter competition even harder to make.
会。美国政府在垂直合并案上已有数十年没赢过。据美国司法部(Department of Justice)自己的审查指导原则，像时代华纳这样的内容所有者与AT&T这样的分销商之间的“垂直合并”，远不如水平合并那么令人担忧。与此同时，Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)、Netflix和谷歌(Google)这四巨头（合称FANG，取每家名称首字母）如今主宰了数字娱乐版图，这使得政府的如下论点更难以站住脚：两家传统媒体公司的合并，会从根本上改变竞争态势。
Rana Foroohar
拉娜福鲁哈尔(Rana Foroohar)
Will Tesla produce more than 250,000 Model 3s
特斯拉(Tesla) Model 3s的产量会超过25万辆吗？
No. The much-hyped US electric carmaker once promised to make 400,000 of its new dream machines in 2018. Its latest production targets imply 200,000-300,000. But serious glitches in battery production have meant a slow start, and Tesla’s record is not good. With Tesla yet to show it can wean itself off constant infusions of Wall Street cash, 2018 cold be a make or break year.
没戏。这家受到热捧的美国电动车制造商曾经承诺在2018年生产40万辆新款Model 3s。该公司最新的产量目标暗示20万-30万辆。但是电池生产中出现的严重问题意味着一开始就慢了，而且特斯拉的记录不佳。对尚未证明自己离了华尔街不断输入的资金也能活的特斯拉而言，2018年可能会是不成功便成仁的一年。
Richard Waters
理查德沃特斯(Richard Waters)
Will the S&P 500 finish the year above 2,650
今年年底标普500(S&P 500)指数会在2650点上方吗？
Yes. There are plenty of positives: earnings, economic growth, and US tax cuts. But they are already known. Stocks look ridiculously expensive by historical standards, but that tells us nothing about short-term moves. Ultimately, it comes down to liquidity, which has driven markets since they emerged from the crisis in 2009. If all goes according to plan, central banks will be decreasing their balance sheets, and removing liquidity, by the end of 2018. If they go through with this, the odds are that the S&P will stall. But even a tiny tremor could make the bankers blink. Expect the momentum to continue.
会。目前有很多利好因素：利润、经济增长和美国减税。但这些都是已知因素。按照历史标准看，眼下股价高得离谱，但这对短期走势毫无参考价值。最终还是要看流动性，自从股市在2009年从危机中走出来以后，流动性始终驱动着股市上涨。如果一切按计划进行，到2018年底，各国央行会在缩表和撤除流动性。如果各央行果真这样做，标普500指数很可能会牛气不再。但只要稍有风吹草动，央行官员们就会迟疑。这股牛气应该会继续。
John Authers
约翰奥瑟兹(John Authers)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield finish the year above 3 per cent
今年年底10年期美国国债收益率会突破3%吗？
No. Wall Street strategists’ predicting that the US government’s 10-year borrowing costs will climb above the 3 per cent mark in the coming year is as much a staple of the Christmas period as awkward office parties. This year the forecasts look more likely to be fulfilled, given a withdrawal of quantitative easing and the US tax cut. However, the seismic, secular forces pinning down both inflation and long-term bond yields remain in place and are still underestimated. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times in 2018, but the 10-year yield will not breach 3 per cent.
不会。华尔街策略师预测美国政府的10年期借贷成本将在未来一年攀升至3%以上，这话就像尴尬的办公室聚会一样是圣诞节那段时间的固定节目。鉴于美联储退出量化宽松和美国减税，今年的预测看起来更有可能实现。然而，压低通胀和长期债券收益率的长期重大因素依然存在，并且仍然被低估。2018年美联储将至少加息三次，但10年期收益率不会突破3%。
Robin Wigglesworth
罗宾威格尔斯沃思(Robin Wigglesworth)
Will oil finish 2018 above $70 a barrel
2018年底石油价格会超过每桶70美元吗？
Yes. Supply outages and geopolitical risk factors will probably persist, alongside output curbs by global producers. But whether prices can maintain levels at $70 or above is dependent on the willingness of Russia to keep backing a Saudi Arabia-led effort to cut production in the face of growing US shale supply. Other participants in the co-ordinated effort also need to sustain strong compliance with the deal, the incentive of which declines as governments reap the rewards of higher prices.