2018年全球大事预测
Will Theresa May remain prime minister in 2018
2018年特里萨梅(Theresa May)会继续担任英国首相吗
Yes. Mrs May lost most of her authority with the bungled snap election. But the past few months have been kinder. Sealing a Brexit divorce deal has ensured short-term job security. So until Brexit is formally complete in 2019, or an appealing alternative emerges, the Conservative party will keep her where she is. Remainers and Leavers alike wish to avoid a civil war that would be sparked by moving against her. What was thought to be an unsustainable position is proving surprisingly sustainable.
会。梅因为失算的提前选举而失去了大部分权威。但过去几个月情况对她较为有利。敲定退欧离婚协议，确保了她的饭碗短期无忧。因此直到2019年英国退欧正式完成（或者另一种更吸引人的替代方案出现）前，保守党将让她继续坐在首相位置上。留欧派和退欧派都希望避免因反对她而引发内战。事实将证明，曾经被人们认为是坐不长的位置，意外地能够坐久。
Sebastian Payne
塞巴斯蒂安佩恩(Sebastian Payne)
Will the UK economy be the slowest-growing in the G7
英国会是七国集团(G7)中经济增长最慢的国家吗？
No. This is possible, of course, but with luck, Mrs May has at least now ensured that the UK is not going to tumble over a “no deal” cliff in 2019. In December 2017, Consensus Forecasts’ prediction for the UK was of 1.5 per cent growth in 2018. Its forecasts for Japan and Italy were even lower, at 1.3 per cent. So the chances that the UK will have the slowest-growing economy in the G7 next year should be around one in four.
不会。当然，这种情况可能发生，但是只要运气不是太差，梅眼下至少可以确保英国经济不会在2019年因掉落“无协议”悬崖而急剧下滑。2017年12月，“共识预测”(Consensus Forecasts)预测2018年英国将增长1.5%。该机构对日本和意大利的预测值更低，为1.3%。因此英国明年成为G7中经济增长最慢国家的几率应该在四分之一左右。
Martin Wolf
马丁沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)
Will Emmanuel Macron secure a commitment from German chancellor Angela Merkel on a eurozone budget
埃马纽埃尔马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)会得到德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)对欧元区预算的承诺吗？
No. Ms Merkel may accept a small eurozone investment fund, but it will fall short of the French president’s ambitions. Mr Macron wants a “road map” to a budget equivalent to several percentage points of eurozone output, supervised by a finance minister, all to absorb economic shocks. Ms Merkel is inclined to acquiesce, but she has emerged politically weakened from federal elections and will be unable to impose such a decision on her largely sceptical public.
不会。默克尔可能会接受一支规模较小的欧元区投资基金，但这满足不了这位法国总统的雄心。马克龙想要的是“路线图”，指明如何实现一份相当于欧元区经济产出一定百分点的预算，由一名财政部长监督，完全用于缓冲经济震荡。默克尔想要答应，但她在联邦选举后政治地位受到削弱，因此无法勉强基本上持怀疑态度的德国民众接受这样一个决定。
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany
安妮-西尔万沙萨尼(Anne-Sylvaine Chassany)
Will the Democrats take back the majority in the midterm election in the US House of Representatives
民主党能在中期选举中重新夺回美国众议院多数党地位吗？
Yes — by an eyelash. Democrats will need to win an additional 24 seats, meaning they will have to hold on to all 12 Democratic districts that Mr Trump won last year and pick up the 23 Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, plus one or two more for good measure. The math is not on the Democrats’ side, but history is. The president’s party almost always loses some House seats in the midterms, and sometimes loses big, especially when the president has an approval rating below 50 per cent. See Barack Obama in 2010.
勉强能。民主党需要再赢得24个席位，这意味着他们需要守住特朗普去年胜选的全部12个民主党选区，并拿下23个在大选中投票支持希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的共和党选区，另外再添上一两个选区。算起来形势对民主党不利，但从历史先例来看形势有利于民主党。历任总统所在的政党几乎总会在中期选举时丢掉一些众议院席位，有时丢得还挺多，特别是当在位总统的支持率低于50%的时候。看一看2010年的巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)就知道了。
Courtney Weaver
柯特妮韦弗(Courtney Weaver)
Will impeachment proceedings begin against Donald Trump
唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)会遭遇弹劾程序吗？
Yes — just. Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Though they will not take charge until January 2019, they will waste no time preparing the House Judiciary paperwork. Mr Trump will label it a “witch hunt”. But another year of his surreal presidency makes it all but inevitable Democrats will campaign on a pledge to hold him to account. Whatever Robert Mueller’s investigation unearths before then is unlikely to turn enough Republicans against him.
勉强会。民主党将在11月中期选举中重新赢得对众议院的控制权。尽管他们要到2019年1月才能掌控众议院，但他们将马上开始为众议院司法委员会(House Judiciary)启动弹劾做文书方面的准备。特朗普将称此举为“政治迫害”。但在特朗普怪诞的总统任期又持续了一年之后，民主党将几乎不可避免地展开造势活动，誓要让特朗普承担责任。在此之前，无论罗伯特米勒(Robert Mueller)的调查发现了什么，都不可能让足够多的共和党人倒戈反对特朗普。
Edward Luce
爱德华卢斯(Edward Luce)
Will Trump trigger a trade war with China
特朗普会发动美中贸易战吗？
Yes. In 2018 President Trump will deliver on some of his protectionist campaign rhetoric by taking punitive actions against China. The most likely triggers for action will be official reports that the Trump administration has commissioned into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property, and its subsidised production of steel and aluminium. The president, spurred on by his trade team, is likely to order retaliatory measures, including tariffs. Whether that marks the first shot in a trade war will depend on how China reacts. A Chinese decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, or to take America to the World Trade Organization, will signal the opening of hostilities.
会。2018年，美国总统特朗普将通过对中国采取惩罚性行动，来兑现他在竞选时许下的部分保护主义诺言。最可能的触发因素将是特朗普政府委托的、对中国涉嫌窃取知识产权的官方调查报告，以及中国补贴钢铁和铝生产的行为。在其贸易团队的敦促下，特朗普可能会下令采取报复性措施，其中包括征收惩罚性关税。此举是否会标志着贸易战打响第一枪，将取决于中国如何反应。如果中国决定征收报复性关税，或者把美国告上世贸组织(WTO)，将标志着敌对状态的开始。
2018年特里萨梅(Theresa May)会继续担任英国首相吗
Yes. Mrs May lost most of her authority with the bungled snap election. But the past few months have been kinder. Sealing a Brexit divorce deal has ensured short-term job security. So until Brexit is formally complete in 2019, or an appealing alternative emerges, the Conservative party will keep her where she is. Remainers and Leavers alike wish to avoid a civil war that would be sparked by moving against her. What was thought to be an unsustainable position is proving surprisingly sustainable.
会。梅因为失算的提前选举而失去了大部分权威。但过去几个月情况对她较为有利。敲定退欧离婚协议，确保了她的饭碗短期无忧。因此直到2019年英国退欧正式完成（或者另一种更吸引人的替代方案出现）前，保守党将让她继续坐在首相位置上。留欧派和退欧派都希望避免因反对她而引发内战。事实将证明，曾经被人们认为是坐不长的位置，意外地能够坐久。
Sebastian Payne
塞巴斯蒂安佩恩(Sebastian Payne)
Will the UK economy be the slowest-growing in the G7
英国会是七国集团(G7)中经济增长最慢的国家吗？
No. This is possible, of course, but with luck, Mrs May has at least now ensured that the UK is not going to tumble over a “no deal” cliff in 2019. In December 2017, Consensus Forecasts’ prediction for the UK was of 1.5 per cent growth in 2018. Its forecasts for Japan and Italy were even lower, at 1.3 per cent. So the chances that the UK will have the slowest-growing economy in the G7 next year should be around one in four.
不会。当然，这种情况可能发生，但是只要运气不是太差，梅眼下至少可以确保英国经济不会在2019年因掉落“无协议”悬崖而急剧下滑。2017年12月，“共识预测”(Consensus Forecasts)预测2018年英国将增长1.5%。该机构对日本和意大利的预测值更低，为1.3%。因此英国明年成为G7中经济增长最慢国家的几率应该在四分之一左右。
Martin Wolf
马丁沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)
Will Emmanuel Macron secure a commitment from German chancellor Angela Merkel on a eurozone budget
埃马纽埃尔马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)会得到德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)对欧元区预算的承诺吗？
No. Ms Merkel may accept a small eurozone investment fund, but it will fall short of the French president’s ambitions. Mr Macron wants a “road map” to a budget equivalent to several percentage points of eurozone output, supervised by a finance minister, all to absorb economic shocks. Ms Merkel is inclined to acquiesce, but she has emerged politically weakened from federal elections and will be unable to impose such a decision on her largely sceptical public.
不会。默克尔可能会接受一支规模较小的欧元区投资基金，但这满足不了这位法国总统的雄心。马克龙想要的是“路线图”，指明如何实现一份相当于欧元区经济产出一定百分点的预算，由一名财政部长监督，完全用于缓冲经济震荡。默克尔想要答应，但她在联邦选举后政治地位受到削弱，因此无法勉强基本上持怀疑态度的德国民众接受这样一个决定。
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany
安妮-西尔万沙萨尼(Anne-Sylvaine Chassany)
Will the Democrats take back the majority in the midterm election in the US House of Representatives
民主党能在中期选举中重新夺回美国众议院多数党地位吗？
Yes — by an eyelash. Democrats will need to win an additional 24 seats, meaning they will have to hold on to all 12 Democratic districts that Mr Trump won last year and pick up the 23 Republican districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, plus one or two more for good measure. The math is not on the Democrats’ side, but history is. The president’s party almost always loses some House seats in the midterms, and sometimes loses big, especially when the president has an approval rating below 50 per cent. See Barack Obama in 2010.
勉强能。民主党需要再赢得24个席位，这意味着他们需要守住特朗普去年胜选的全部12个民主党选区，并拿下23个在大选中投票支持希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的共和党选区，另外再添上一两个选区。算起来形势对民主党不利，但从历史先例来看形势有利于民主党。历任总统所在的政党几乎总会在中期选举时丢掉一些众议院席位，有时丢得还挺多，特别是当在位总统的支持率低于50%的时候。看一看2010年的巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)就知道了。
Courtney Weaver
柯特妮韦弗(Courtney Weaver)
Will impeachment proceedings begin against Donald Trump
唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)会遭遇弹劾程序吗？
Yes — just. Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. Though they will not take charge until January 2019, they will waste no time preparing the House Judiciary paperwork. Mr Trump will label it a “witch hunt”. But another year of his surreal presidency makes it all but inevitable Democrats will campaign on a pledge to hold him to account. Whatever Robert Mueller’s investigation unearths before then is unlikely to turn enough Republicans against him.
勉强会。民主党将在11月中期选举中重新赢得对众议院的控制权。尽管他们要到2019年1月才能掌控众议院，但他们将马上开始为众议院司法委员会(House Judiciary)启动弹劾做文书方面的准备。特朗普将称此举为“政治迫害”。但在特朗普怪诞的总统任期又持续了一年之后，民主党将几乎不可避免地展开造势活动，誓要让特朗普承担责任。在此之前，无论罗伯特米勒(Robert Mueller)的调查发现了什么，都不可能让足够多的共和党人倒戈反对特朗普。
Edward Luce
爱德华卢斯(Edward Luce)
Will Trump trigger a trade war with China
特朗普会发动美中贸易战吗？
Yes. In 2018 President Trump will deliver on some of his protectionist campaign rhetoric by taking punitive actions against China. The most likely triggers for action will be official reports that the Trump administration has commissioned into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property, and its subsidised production of steel and aluminium. The president, spurred on by his trade team, is likely to order retaliatory measures, including tariffs. Whether that marks the first shot in a trade war will depend on how China reacts. A Chinese decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, or to take America to the World Trade Organization, will signal the opening of hostilities.
会。2018年，美国总统特朗普将通过对中国采取惩罚性行动，来兑现他在竞选时许下的部分保护主义诺言。最可能的触发因素将是特朗普政府委托的、对中国涉嫌窃取知识产权的官方调查报告，以及中国补贴钢铁和铝生产的行为。在其贸易团队的敦促下，特朗普可能会下令采取报复性措施，其中包括征收惩罚性关税。此举是否会标志着贸易战打响第一枪，将取决于中国如何反应。如果中国决定征收报复性关税，或者把美国告上世贸组织(WTO)，将标志着敌对状态的开始。
