2018年全球大事预测(2)

Gideon Rachman
吉迪恩拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)
Will China’s reported gross domestic product growth surpass 6.5 per cent
中国官方国内生产总值(GDP)增速会超过6.5%吗？
Yes, even if real GDP growth does not. Speculation over the true GDP growth rate in China, as opposed to the official one, has spawned a cottage industry of specialist economists. The official figures are deceptively stable and serene thanks to suspected “smoothing” by the Chinese authorities, as they bend the figures to fit growth targets. So even if growth does stumble in 2018, the official growth rate is almost certain to come in above the preordained 6.5 per cent.
会，即便真实的GDP增速未超过这个数字。关于中国真正的（相对官方数据而言）GDP增长率的猜测，已经衍生出一个由相关经济学专家组成的作坊式行业。官方数据看似稳定而美好——有人怀疑中国有关部门对数据进行了“美化”，调整了一些数字、使其符合增长目标。因此，即使2018年中国的增长磕磕绊绊，官方的增速也几乎肯定会高于预定的6.5%。
Jamil Anderlini
吉密欧(Jamil Anderlini)
Will the BoJ tighten monetary policy
日本央行会收紧货币政策吗？
No. The Bank of Japan’s life will get tougher in 2018 as the US Federal Reserve tightens policy and widens the interest rate gap with Japan. But governor Haruhiko Kuroda is determined to hike rates in response to one thing only: inflation. The BoJ may let the yield curve climb a little if prices start to accelerate, but real interest rates in Japan will end 2018 no higher than at the start of the year.
不会。随着美联储收紧货币政策并扩大美国与日本的利率差，2018年日本央行的日子会更不好过。但是日本央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)已决心只会因一件事而上调利率，那就是通胀。如果通胀开始加速，日本央行可能会让收益率曲线略微上扬，但到2018年年底时日本实际利率不会高于年初时的水平。
Robin Harding
罗宾哈丁(Robin Harding)
Will emerging market GDP growth pass 5 per cent
新兴市场GDP增速会超过5%吗？
Yes. With the US Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates a few times in 2018, trading is likely to be choppy in emerging markets. Sometimes it may feel a bit like a rerun of the 2013 “taper tantrum”. However, average GDP growth will rise to 5 per cent, up from a forecast 4.7 per cent this year. This will mostly be because Russia and Brazil, which have stumbled, will bounce back.
会。在2018年美联储可能多次加息的情况下，新兴市场中的交易可能会波动起伏。有时可能感觉有点像2013年“削减恐慌”(taper tantrum)重演。然而，平均GDP增速将升至5%，高于去年4.7%的预测值。这主要是因为近来处境艰难的俄罗斯和巴西境况将好转。
James Kynge
金奇(James Kynge)
Will Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi try any more unorthodox economic experiments
印度总理纳伦德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)会尝试更多非正统的经济试验吗？
Yes. Mr Modi’s overnight ban on using high-value bank notes was a big shock, and seriously disrupted the economy. But it delivered rich political rewards, bolstering the premier’s image as a decisive leader willing to take tough action against corruption. With the next general elections due in 2019, Mr Modi will be tempted to deliver one more big bang to dazzle voters. Watch out for dramatic action against wealthy individuals holding properties in others’ names to hide their ownership.
会。莫迪一夜之间废除大面额纸币的做法令人震惊，严重扰乱了印度经济。但此举带来了丰厚的政治回报，支撑了莫迪作为愿意采取严厉措施打击腐败的果决领导人的形象。面临2019年的下一届大选，莫迪很有可能想拿出另一项轰动性措施来博取选民的支持。当心，他可能会对那些为了隐藏资产而以他人名义持有房产的富人采取重大行动。
Amy Kazmin
艾米卡兹明(Amy Kazmin)
Will the Saudi Aramco public offering debut on an international market
沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)会在外国公开上市吗？
No. What has been billed as the largest ever IPO is a cornerstone of de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman’s grand economic restructuring, so it must happen. Shares in Aramco will be quoted on the local stock exchange. The international element of the IPO is unlikely to be a public listing, however. Donald Trump has lobbied for New York, and London is pulling all the stops. Hong Kong and Tokyo are also under consideration. But the Saudis will opt instead for a private sale, or choose to list internationally later than anticipated.
不会。这笔被誉为史上最大规模的首次公开发行(IPO)，是沙特实际领导人穆罕默德本萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)宏大经济重组计划的基石，因此沙特阿美IPO肯定会成行。该公司的股票将在沙特本国的证交所上市。不过，此次IPO计划在国外的部分不太可能是一次公开发行。唐纳德特朗普正在为纽约游说，伦敦也在全力以赴争取。香港和东京也在沙特的考虑之中。但沙特会转而选择非公开售股，或者在晚于预期的时间在国外上市。
Roula Khalaf
鲁拉卡拉夫(Roula Khalaf)
Will José Antonio Meade be the next president of Mexico
何塞安东尼奥梅亚德(José Antonio Meade)会成为下一任墨西哥总统吗？
Yes. Mr Meade is the candidate of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. His main rival is the hard leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a passionate orator who can work a crowd. Mr Meade has a lot to overcome: he will have to convince voters that they can trust him, after he put up petrol prices by 20 per cent overnight in January, triggering a surge in inflation. He will also have to reveal himself as his own man, not just a clone of an unpopular government that has failed spectacularly to rein in rampant corruption and crime. But backed by the formidable PRI get-out-the-vote machine, he could prove unstoppable. In Mexico’s one-round-only system, 30 per cent of the vote might be enough.
会。梅亚德是执政党革命制度党(PRI)的候选人。他主要的竞争对手是强硬的左翼领导人安德烈斯曼努埃尔洛佩斯奥夫拉多尔(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)——可以感召人群的激情演说家。梅亚德需要克服很多问题：在去年1月一夜间把油价上调20%、引发通胀飙升后，他必须说服选民自己仍然是可以信任的。他还必须证明自己是个有主见的人，而不仅仅是这届不受欢迎的政府的傀儡——在遏制猖獗的腐败和犯罪行为方面，这届政府极为失败。但是凭借强大的PRI拉票机器，他可能势不可挡。在墨西哥只有一轮选举的体制下，30%的选票可能就足以让他当选总统了。