朝鲜发展核武削弱其陆军战斗力
When North Korea deployed hundreds of artillery units, submarines and soldiers to take part in its largest live-fire drill, it was intended as a chilling display of the reclusive regime’s military might.
朝鲜部署数百炮兵部队、潜艇和士兵举行最大规模实弹演习时，本意是展示这一封闭政权的军事力量，起到令外界胆寒的效果。
The country boasts the world’s fourth-largest standing army, with more than 1m troops as well as 7m reserves, and last week’s military exercise came as US President Donald Trump ramped up the pressure on Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programmes.该国号称拥有世界上第四大常备陆军，现役军人超100万，预备役军人达700万。上周，在美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)因朝鲜核武器与导弹计划问题而对其加大压力之际，朝鲜举行了军事演习。But officials and experts say the apparently formidable force is beset by an array of problems, from fuel shortages to ageing equipment, that would choke its capabilities in the event of prolonged conflict with the US and its allies.但官员和专家表示，这支表面上强大的军队受到从燃料短缺到设备老化的一系列问题的削弱。如果与美国及其盟国发生长期冲突，这些问题将制约朝鲜的制胜能力。“Once the Korean People’s Army starts or stumbles into a decisive conventional war, they will run out of something critical like fuel or bullets or parts in 30 days tops,” says one former US military officer with knowledge of North Korea. “Based on numbers from a corps-sized unit I saw, it may even be as early as two weeks.”“一旦朝鲜人民军(KPA)发动或陷入一场决定性的常规战争，不出30天，燃料、子弹或部件等关键物资就会出现短缺，”一位了解朝鲜的前美国军官说，“从我看到的一个军级单位的数据来判断，也许甚至是不出两周。”Takashi Furuyama, a retired Japanese intelligence officer and military attaché in Seoul, says a ramp-up in Pyongyang’s weapons programmes in recent years has left the army a diminished force.退休的日本情报官员、驻首尔武官Takashi Furuyama表示，近年来朝鲜加大开发核武器计划，已导致朝鲜陆军实力下降。“Given the diversion of resources to missiles and nuclear weaponry, I think their ability to fight a war may be a third or a quarter of what it was,” he says.“鉴于各种资源向导弹与核武器倾斜，我认为，他们打一场战争的能力只有过去的三分之一或四分之一，”他说。Pyongyang’s fuel dependency was thrown into stark relief last week when petrol prices in the isolated nation shot up more than 80 per cent amid talk that China — a vital ally and lifeline — could cut supply.上周，朝鲜在能源上对外依赖的程度完全暴露了出来，当时这个孤立国家的汽油价格猛涨逾80%——传言朝鲜的关键盟国、为其供应必需物资的中国可能切断供给。Its conventional military hardware — much of which was produced by the Soviet Union and China during the cold war — is also creaking with age.朝鲜的常规军事装备也严重老旧——大部分是苏联和中国在冷战期间生产的。According to a 2015 US defence department report: “The KPA has not acquired new fighter aircraft in decades, relies on older air defence systems, lacks ballistic missile defence, its Navy does not train for blue-water operations, and recently unveiled artillery systems include tractor-towed rocket launchers.”根据2015年美国国防部的一份报告：“朝鲜人民军已经几十年没有采购新战斗机，依赖老旧的防空系统，缺少弹道导弹防御能力，其海军没受过蓝海作战训练，近期曝光的火炮系统使用拖拉机牵引火箭发射装置。”Experts say Kim Jong Un’s regime knows it is unlikely to win any conventional conflict and has instead embarked on a strategy of deterrence to ensure its survival.专家们表示，金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权知道，自己不大可能打赢任何常规冲突，并转而采取了一种威慑战略来确保自己的生存。The policy uses a dual-prong approach of developing strategic nuclear weapons while maintaining a large, forward deployed conventional force that can pose an immediate threat to South Korea.这一政策使用一种双头并进的方法，既发展战略核武器，又维持一支大规模、前沿部署的常规部队——该部队可以对韩国构成直接威胁。The defence report says: “These two aspects of its military strategy are meant to be mutually supporting; the threat posed by one is employed to deter an attack on the other.”美国国防部报告称：“朝鲜军事战略的两个方面意在相互支持；一方面产生的威胁，被用于阻止自己在另一方面遭到攻击。”The set-up presents Mr Trump with a dilemma. Washington maintains that all options, including military strikes, are on the table.这种安排让特朗普面临一种两难处境。华盛顿方面坚持认为，所有选项——包括军事打击——都在讨论之列。“If he does a nuclear test, I will not be happy,” Mr Trump said in an interview with CBS News aired Sunday. Asked if this meant military action, the president replied: “I don’t know. I mean, we’ll see.”“如果他进行核试验，我会不高兴，”特朗普在接受美国哥伦比亚广播公司新闻台(CBS News)采访时说。该采访内容已于上周日播放。在被问及这是否指军事行动时，这位总统回答说：“我不知道。我的意思是，看吧。”Mr Trump warned on Friday that there was a chance the US “could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea.”特朗普上周五警告称，美国“最终有可能与朝鲜发生非常、非常重大的冲突”。However, his strategic calculus will be influenced by the likelihood of retaliatory strikes on the US military, as well as domestic civilians, in South Korea and Japan.然而，他的战略考量将受到一种可能性的影响，即驻韩国和日本的美军以及韩日两国平民遭受报复性打击。The rapid development of Pyongyang’s ballistic weapons programmes has left both nations vulnerable to medium-range missiles, while North Korea’s heavy — and heavily fortified — artillery imperil greater Seoul’s 20m inhabitants. Pyongyang test-fired a ballistic missile on Saturday, but US and South Korean officials said it appeared to have failed.平壤弹道武器计划的快速研发将日韩两国置于中程导弹威胁之下，而朝鲜重重防护的重型火炮随时可以危及大首尔地区2000万民众的性命。平壤上周六试射了一枚弹道导弹，但美、韩官员表示，试射似乎失败了。“They have been improving the accuracy of all of their ballistic missiles,” says Hideaki Kaneda, a retired Japanese vice-admiral and now director of the Okazaki Institute. He estimates that the [medium-range] Nodong missile is now accurate to within 100m — maybe as little as 50m.日本退役海将、现任东京冈崎研究所(Okazaki Institute)理事的金田秀昭(Hideaki Kaneda)说：“他们一直在提高本国所有弹道导弹的精确度。”他估计，（中程）“芦洞”(Nodong)导弹现在可以精确到100米（可能甚至50米）以内。Weapons alone, however, are unlikely to win North Korea a war.然而，朝鲜不大可能单靠武器打赢战争。Even if the North destroyed every runway at US bases in the South, “two carrier strike groups and two attack submarines can mount enough sorties and firepower to neutralise a couple of hundred North Korean above-ground targets”, a former US military officer said.即使朝鲜摧毁驻韩美军基地的所有飞机跑道，“两个航母战斗群和两艘攻击型潜艇的飞机和弹药足以摧毁朝鲜数百个地面目标”，一位美国退役军官表示。North Korea maintains about 8,600 artillery units, 5,500 multiple rocket launchers and 4,300 tanks, according to a recent white paper by the South Korean defence ministry — although many are outdated and slow to reload and fire.韩国国防部最近发布的一份白皮书称，朝鲜拥有约8600个炮兵单位、5500座多管火箭炮以及4300辆坦克——尽管许多已经过时，装填弹药和发射速度缓慢。“That’s why the North focuses on reinforcing asymmetric forces such as nuclear weapons and missiles in order to secure military superiority over South Korea,” says Yang Wook, a senior researcher at the Korea Defence and Security Forum.“这就是朝鲜之所以一心加强核武器和导弹等非对称力量、以确保对韩国的军事优势的原因，”韩国国防与安全论坛(Korea Defence and Security Forum)高级研究员Yang Wook说。In September Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test and many expect another imminently.去年9月，平壤进行了第五次核试验，而许多人预计下一次核试验就在眼前。According to Shea Cotton, a researcher at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, North Korea has begun testing ballistic missiles from new locations, suggesting the launches are operational rather than developmental.位于美国蒙特雷(Monterey)的防扩散研究中心(Center for Nonproliferation Studies)研究员谢伊?科顿(Shea Cotton)表示，朝鲜已经开始从新的地点测试弹道导弹，这表明发射已进入实操阶段，而非开发阶段。“Why would Kim Jong Un drag his entourage all over the country to a wide array of different sites to watch tests? The answer is that North Korea is training its missile units for nuclear war.”
“为什么金正恩带着随从到全国各地各种不同地点观看试射？答案是，朝鲜正在为进行核战训练导弹部队。”North Korea is also believed to maintain up to 5,000 tonnes of chemical weapons, including chlorine, sarin and VX — used most recently in the assassination of Mr Kim’s brother, Kim Jong Nam, in March.据信，朝鲜还拥有最多达5000吨化学武器，包括氯气、沙林毒气和VX神经毒剂——后者今年3月被用于暗杀金正恩之兄金正男(Kim Jong Nam)。However, few believe North Korea would employ its weapons of mass destruction as an offensive tactic as such a move would trigger a military response likely to bring about Mr Kim’s overthrow.然而，几乎没有人相信朝鲜会利用大规模杀伤性武器作为进攻手段，因为这样做将引发一场很可能导致金正恩倒台的军事回击。Instead, Pyongyang is expected to continue its cycle of coercion through limited, albeit potentially lethal, provocations.相反，预计平壤将会继续一轮轮地通过有限度（尽管可能危害极大的）各种挑衅来进行要挟。
