中国股市跌至熊市,金融体系面临挑战(2)

A person who picked up the phone at the think tank said that the document was genuine and that its release had not been intended.
一位代表该智库接听电话的人士表示，这份报告是真的，而且它的公开是个意外。
The document said that with “the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the long-term and highly uncertain trade conflicts between China and the United States, we believe that in China there is currently a high probability of financial panic.”
该文件称，“加之美联储加息以及中美贸易冲突呈现高度不确定性，我们认为目前中国就有可能出现金融恐慌。”
Other economists cautioned that the analysis should not necessarily be treated as representing a consensus view within the Chinese government.
其他经济学家告诫说，该分析不应该被视为代表中国政府的共识。
Mr. Li has a reputation as being more bearish during financial crises than other Chinese government economists. He has also used periods of financial stress in China to oppose economic reformers who seek the opening up of the country’s financial system to greater competition and more international flows of money, Mr. Hong said.
与中国政府其他的经济学家相比，李扬以在金融危机期间对市场持更为悲观的态度而著称。洪灏说，他还曾利用中国的金融紧张时期，反对那些谋求开放国家金融体系、加大竞争、加大资金国际流动的经济改革者。
The document leaked this week said that the way to prevent a financial panic was to create a separate stabilization fund to prop up the currency, rather than selling dollars and shrinking the money supply. Such a move could help insulate China’s economy, because reducing the money supply makes it harder for families and businesses to borrow for purchases and investments, from buying an apartment to building a factory.
本周泄露的这份报告称，防止金融恐慌的方式是创建一个独立的稳定基金来支撑人民币，而不是出售美元和减少货币供应。此举可能有助于中国经济免受冲击，因为减少货币供应量会使得家庭和企业难以贷款购买和投资，从买房到建厂莫不如此。
中国股市跌至熊市，金融体系面临挑战.jpg

By contrast, many economic reformers say that China would benefit from more openness. The closed Chinese financial system tends to steer money to state-owned enterprises instead of smaller and more entrepreneurial private sector businesses.

相反，许多经济改革者表示中国会从更多开放中受益。封闭的中国金融体系倾向于将资金引向国有企业，而不是规模更小、更具创业精神的私营企业。
Predictions by the report’s authors aren’t gospel, said Qian Qimin, the director of wealth management research at Shenwan Securities, a Shanghai brokerage.
上海的证券交易所申银万国证券市场研究部主管钱启敏表示，报告作者的预测并非金科玉律。
“They consider problems from a theoretical perspective and they look forward and alert government to the worst consequences, which is understandable,” he said.
“他们主要是从理论角度考虑，有一些前瞻性，看得严重一些做出了预警，是可以理解的，”他说。