我们如何对抗恐怖主义威胁

In the EU, the chances of being killed by a terrorist in 2016 were just five times greater than being killed by lightning. The chances of being murdered for some other reason were more than 30 times greater than that of being killed by terrorists and the chances of dying in a sporting accident 51 times greater.

在2016年，一个人在欧盟(EU)境内被恐怖分子杀害的机率，仅为被闪电劈死的机率的5倍；死于其他原因的凶杀的机率和死于运动事故的机率，分别是被恐怖分子杀害机率的30多倍和51倍。

Terrorism is frightening: indeed, its aim is to ignite fear. But surrendering to fear is to give terrorists what they want: the sundering of our open societies and the division of the world into believers and “crusader” enemies. We have no reason to give them this victory and must not do so.

恐怖主义令人恐惧：事实上，恐怖主义的目的就是制造恐惧。但向恐惧投降就会让恐怖分子的如下阴谋得逞：割裂我们的开放社会，将世界分成信徒和“十字军”敌人两个阵营。我们没有任何理由，也绝对不能奉送给恐怖分子这场胜利。

It should be noted that 2016 was a relatively bad year for EU terrorism. Robert Muggah, an expert on terrorism, notes that between 2010 and 2014, the average probability of dying at the hands of a terrorist was 0.0018 per 100,000 (0.0000018 per cent). This rose to 0.034 per 100,000 in 2015, then falling to 0.027 in 2016.

需要指出的是，2016年是欧盟恐怖主义活动相对不顺的一年。恐怖主义专家罗伯特?穆加(Robert Muggah)指出，2010年至2014年，死于恐怖分子之手的平均概率是10万分之0.0018（也就是0.0000018%）。这一概率在2015年提高到了10万分之0.034，然后在2016年降到了10万分之0.027。

This modest rise in the number of European victims of terrorism in recent years has struck fear in the hearts of many Americans: Donald Trump, for one, has milked it ferociously. Yet 15,696 people were murdered in the US in 2015, a rate of 4.88 per 100,000. In the UK, the murder rate was 0.92 per 100,000. That gap is really worth worrying about.

近年来欧洲的恐怖主义活动受害者数量的略微上升引起了许多美国人的恐惧：有些人大肆利用这一点，比如唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)。然而，2015年美国有15696人遭到谋杀，比例是10万分之4.88。同期，英国的这一比例是10万分之0.92。这种差距才是真正值得担忧的。

After the attack on June 3 on London Bridge and in Borough Market, Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, said that “we will never be cowed by terrorism”. I hope he is right. He added, for those in London, that “you will see an increased police presence today, including armed officers and uniformed officers. There is no reason to be alarmed by this.”

6月3日恐怖分子对伦敦桥(London Bridge)和博罗市场(Borough Market，见文首照片)的袭击发生后，伦敦市长萨迪克汗(Sadiq Khan)说“我们绝不会被恐怖主义吓倒”。我希望他是对的。他还说，对于身在伦敦的人来说，“今天你们将看到警力部署加强，包括全副武装的警察和穿制服的警察。没理由对此感到惊慌”。

The tweeter-in-chief replied: “At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is ‘no reason to be alarmed!’” Mr Trump’s misrepresentation is to be expected. So, alas, is his fomenting of panic. Yet, if Mr Khan had indeed said people should not be unduly alarmed, he would have been right. Such alarm is what terrorists want.

“首席推特官”特朗普的回应是：“这场恐怖袭击中至少有7人死亡，48人受伤，而伦敦市长居然说‘没理由惊慌’！”（见下图）特朗普歪曲事实是意料之中。唉，他煽动恐慌情绪也是意料之中。然而，即便伦敦市长真的说人们不应过分惊慌，那他也没说错。恐慌情绪正是恐怖分子想要看到的。

Mr Trump added, gratuitously: “Do you notice we are not having a gun debate right now? That’s because they used knives and a truck!” We are not having a gun debate in the UK because guns have, happily, been so effectively removed. What, one has to ask, might three men holding machine guns have done on that dreadful night?

特朗普还没事找事地补充道：“你们注意到我们现在不辩论枪支问题了吗？那是因为他们用刀和卡车了！”在英国，我们并不辩论枪支问题，因为令人高兴的是，枪支已经被非常有效地禁止了。那么人们要问了，在那个可怕的夜晚，3名持枪的男子可能会做出什么事情来呢？

The president also used the London attack to justify his ban on travel from several Muslim-majority countries. Yet that ban is misdirected and misguided. It is misdirected because it includes only Syria, Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Libya and excludes countries in which Mr Trump does business. It is also misdirected, because it excludes Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose citizens perpetrated the September 11 attacks. It is misguided because it plays directly into the jihadi theme of a war against Islam. The ban is a political ploy: it has nothing to do with keeping the public safer.

特朗普总统还利用伦敦恐袭来证明，他针对几个人口以穆斯林为主国家的公民的入境禁令是正当的。然而，这项禁令不仅搞错了目标，还搞错了情况。说这项禁令搞错了目标，一方面是因为这项禁令只针对叙利亚、伊朗、也门、苏丹、索马里和利比亚，而不包括与特朗普有生意往来的国家，另一方面是因为这项禁令不包括埃及、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋，而9/11袭击正是来自这些国家的公民实施的。说这项禁令搞错了情况，是因为这项禁令正好坐实了圣战者的中心观点：一场对伊斯兰的战争。这项禁令是政治手段：与更好地维护公众安全毫无关系。

Every terrorist attack is indeed an outrage. I do not wish to downplay this natural reaction. But it is also a political act. The aim is to sow panic and so induce a vicious spiral of action and overreaction. The goal is to destroy the possibility for Muslims and non-Muslims to live harmoniously side by side both within western democracies and in the world as a whole. This is a victory we must not give the perpetrators.

的确，任何恐怖主义袭击都是暴行。我无意对这种自然的反应轻描淡写。但恐怖主义袭击也是一种政治行为。其目的是播撒恐慌，由此引发行动和过度反应的恶性循环。其目标是摧毁穆斯林和非穆斯林在西方民主国家、乃至整个世界和睦共处的可能性。我们不能奉送给行凶者这场胜利。

Our response must be proportionate and principled: we must not abandon fundamental tenets of the rule of law; and we must also draw a clear line between perpetrators and enablers, on the one hand, and everybody else, on the other.

我们的反应必须是适度和有原则的：我们不能放弃法治的基本信条；我们必须在行凶者和协助者，以及其他所有人之间划出清晰的界线。

It is of course possible to imagine actions so catastrophic that such relative calm could no longer be maintained. Nuclear or large-scale biological terrorism would, I expect, change everything. But that is not what we are confronting. On the contrary, the low-tech nature of many recent attacks — home-made bombs, lorries, cars and knives — suggests that a combination of controls on guns with effective action by, and co-operation among, security services has, so far, been quite effective. I cannot be the only one who has been surprised by the fact that an attack like 9/11 has not been repeated, so far.

想象出现极其灾难性的恐怖主义行动，导致人们无法继续维持这种相对平静当然是有可能的。我预计，如果恐怖分子使用了核武器、或者大规模生物武器，那么一切都会改变。但我们现在面对的不是这样的情况。相反，最近许多恐怖袭击技术含量较低（恐怖分子使用自制炸弹、卡车、汽车和刀具）的情况表明，采取有效行动控制枪支，再加上安保部门间进行合作，迄今而言成效显著。惊讶于9/11这样的袭击迄今没有再度发生的肯定不只我一个人。

Our values are right; theirs are wrong. Yet we cannot win a war of values if we abandon ourselves to the fear terrorists wish to sow. All lives are precious. We are right to lament their untimely loss. But we would be quite wrong to yield to those who would foment hysteria.

我们的价值观是正确的；恐怖分子的价值观是错误的。然而，如果我们屈服于恐怖分子希望播撒的恐惧，我们就不可能赢得这场价值观之战。所有的生命都是宝贵的。为过早离世的死者哀悼是应该的。但向那些煽动疯狂情绪的人屈服，则是大错特错。

Today’s terrorism is a very small threat indeed to western nations. We face far bigger ones. The right response is, in the words of a poster devised shortly before the second world war, to “keep calm and carry on”. That shall be our victory.

对西方国家而言，现今的恐怖主义实际上是一项非常小的威胁。我们还面临一些更大的威胁。用二战前不久设计的一份海报上的文字来说，正确的反应是“保持平静，继续前进”。如果能做到，我们就胜利了。