是海外旅游支出还是资本外逃

Capital flight disguised as overseas tourism spending has artificially cut China’s reported trade surplus while masking the extent of investment outflows, according to US Federal Reserve research.

美联储(Fed)的研究称，伪装成海外旅游支出的资本外流，人为地降低了中国对外公布的贸易顺差，同时掩盖了投资资本外流的规模。

Before 2014, Chinese spending on travel was consistent with that of other countries at similar income levels. But three years ago spending became “anomalously high”, the paper says.

在2014年前，中国的旅游支出与收入水平相似的其他国家持平。但美联储的研究论文称，3年前，这项支出变得“异常的高”。

China’s per-capita travel spending as a share of per-capita GDP in 2014 was the same as that in the UK, where per-capita GDP is seven times higher. In 2015, such spending nearly equalled Denmark’s, where per-capita income is 10 times higher.

在2014年，中国人均旅游支出相对于人均国内生产总值(GDP)的比例，与人均GDP为中国7倍的英国持平。到2015年，中国的这一支出比例几乎与人均收入为中国10倍的丹麦持平。

Growth in travel spending has also far outpaced growth in the number of travellers, a discrepancy first noted last year by Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

旅游支出的增长速度也远远超过旅游者人数的增长速度，这一出入是去年由美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)高级研究员布拉德?塞策(Brad Setser)最先指出的。

Taken at face value, the figures imply that spending per traveller increased from $1,300 per tourist in 2013 to $2,600 in 2016.

从表面上看，数据表明旅游者的人均支出从2013年的1300美元提高到了2016年的2600美元。

The surge in travel spending also occurred at a time of economic trends that would normally reduce such outlays.

这一旅游支出的激增还发生在经济趋势正常来说会使人们减少此类开支之时。

“Improbable travel transactions respond to economic forces in ways that are opposite to what would be expected of traditional goods and services imports — they increase when growth falters as well as when the domestic currency depreciates”, wrote Anna Wong, senior emerging market economist for the Fed in Washington. “As such, they are more likely to be financial outflows than consumption of goods and services.”

美联储驻华盛顿资深新兴市场经济学家Anna Wong表示：“疑似虚假的旅游交易对经济因素的反应，与传统商品和服务进口该有的反应相反——它们在增长放缓和国内货币贬值的时候上升。因此，它们更有可能是资本外流，而不是对商品和服务的消费。”

The paper’s findings could provide fresh ammunition to Donald Trump and other critics of China’s persistent trade surplus, since they imply that the surplus has fallen less than official data indicate.

这篇论文中的这些发现，可能会给唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)以及其他批评中国长期贸易顺差的人士提供新的弹药，因为这些发现暗示中国贸易顺差的降幅比官方数据所显示的要小。

Disguised capital outflows may have amounted to $190bn, or 1.7 per cent of gross domestic product, in the year through the end of September 2016, according to the paper. That implies that China’s true current account surplus was higher by the same amount.

根据这篇论文，在截至2016年9月的一年中，经过伪装的资本外流可能达到1900亿美元，相当于中国GDP的1.7%。这意味着中国经常项目盈余的实际数额也应高出这么多。

China’s current account surplus officially peaked at 9.9 per cent of GDP in 2007 before falling to 1.7 per cent last year. But the Fed paper estimates that Chinese imports of travel-related goods and services were smaller than reported.

根据中国官方数据，中国经常项目盈余在2007年达到顶峰，为GDP的9.9%，在去年则下降到GDP的1.7%。而美联储的论文估计，中国对旅游相关商品和服务的进口比对外公布的数额要小。

While China has long maintained a large global trade surplus in goods, a deficit in services has moderated the overall current account surplus. In recent years, China’s services trade deficit has widened, due mainly to Chinese spending on travel-related services.

尽管中国长期在全球维持着大规模商品贸易顺差，服务贸易逆差却降低了总体的经常项目盈余。最近几年，中国服务贸易逆差已经扩大，这主要是中国人的旅游相关服务开支导致的。

The country’s travel deficit soared from $129bn in 2013 to $227bn a year later and reached $261bn last year, according to balance of payments data.

根据国际收支数据，中国的旅游逆差从2013年的1290亿美元激增至一年后的2270亿美元，并在去年达到2610亿美元。

Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, acknowledges the possibility of disguised capital outflow but suggests a more innocent explanation: the wealth effect from rising house prices. “It’s hard to pin down how much comes from each factor,” he says.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻香港首席中国经济学家张志伟承认存在伪装资本外流的可能性，但他提出了一种更无辜的解释：房价攀升导致的财富效应。他说：“很难确定每种因素的影响有多大。”

The Fed paper’s conclusion offers further context for a series of moves late last year to clamp down on capital outflows, including stricter regulation of foreign exchange purchases by individuals.

美联储这篇论文的结论，为去年底中国一系列遏制资本外流的举措（包括加强对个人购汇的监管）提供了新的背景信息。

Critics argued that China was backpedalling on economic opening and market-based reform, but Chinese officials countered that the clampdown was mostly about stricter enforcement of existing rules.

批评者认为中国正在经济开放和市场化改革的道路上开倒车，中国官员却反驳称，这轮收紧举措主要是加强了对现有规则的执行力度。

Indeed, regulations had long stipulated that forex purchases by individuals — who are permitted to buy $50,000 per year — must only be used for current account purchases such as foreign shopping and tourism, medical care, tuition, and non-investment-type insurance. Until this year, however, bank tellers rarely asked for documentation to prove how the money was used.

事实上，监管规则长期以来一直规定，个人购汇（每年购汇限额为等值5万美元）只能用于经常项目购买活动，比如境外购物和旅游、医疗、学费、以及非投资类型的保险。然而，直至今年以前，银行柜员很少会索要相关文件，以证明资金的使用目的。

That allowed households to use it to buy foreign assets or to use quotas belonging to friends and family in a process known as “ant moving house”, named for how ants can transport an entire colony, one small piece at a time.

这种状况令老百姓可以用外汇购买境外资产，或通过“蚂蚁搬家”的方式，一次一点地使用属于亲友的外汇配额。