投资者有必要重审新兴市场资产

It is risk-on time for emerging markets. Last week’s sovereign bonds from Argentina and Russia confirm it. Both came from creditors not usually regarded as safe or secure, yet both were amply oversubscribed and both have traded strongly on secondary markets.

现在对于新兴市场来说是追逐风险的时候。上周阿根廷和俄罗斯的主权债券证实了这一点。这两种国债均由通常不被认为安全或可靠的国家发行，但却均获超额认购，且在二级市场表现强劲。

For some observers, such investor enthusiasm is a sure sign that the EM recovery is getting frothy. But there may also be reasons for investors who have tended to view EMs with suspicion to think again about the asset class.

对于一些观察人士而言，这种投资热情无疑是新兴市场复苏出现泡沫的迹象。但对于那些往往以怀疑的态度审视新兴市场的投资者而言，或许也有理由重新思考对这项资产类别的看法。

The EM recovery is not new. It began in January 2016 when, after five years of straight decline, EM currencies began making ground against the US dollar and EM stocks began once again to outperform their developed market peers.

新兴市场复苏不是新鲜事。新兴市场复苏始于2016年1月——在连续5年衰退后，新兴市场货币开始相对美元升值，新兴市场股票开始再次跑赢发达市场股票。

There are two sides to both stories. EM currency weakness is the flipside of US dollar strength. As the long dollar rally fades, EM currencies must, by necessity, perk up. Likewise equities: with the S&P 500 breaking record highs for so long, regardless of the US economy’s reluctance to really ignite, some investors may have decided to spread some risk into EMs.

两个故事都有正反两面。新兴市场货币疲软的反面是美元走强。随着美元长期走强的趋势减弱，新兴市场货币必然走强。股票也一样：考虑到标普500(S&P 500)已有那么长的时间处于创纪录高位，不论美国经济是不是迟迟未实现真正复苏，一些投资者都可能决定把一些风险分散到新兴市场。

But other changes have taken place. One predates the EM recovery by 15 months, to November 2014. That is when the weight of technology stocks in the benchmark MSCI EM equities index overtook the weight of energy and materials — the commodities stocks that many see as emblematic of emerging markets.

但现在也出现了其他变化。其中一个变化出现在2014年11月，比新兴市场复苏早15个月。当时基准股指MSCI明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI EM)中科技股的权重，超过了能源和原材料股的权重。能源和原材料股所属的的大宗商品板块，被很多人视为新兴市场的象征。

This transformation has been dramatic. When the commodities supercycle was in full swing, in mid 2008, energy and materials accounted for more than a third of MSCI EM market capitalisation and tech companies just a tenth. Last month, the commodities group was barely an eighth of EM market cap, and tech companies more than a quarter.

这是一次戏剧性的转变。2008年年中，当大宗商品超级周期火力全开时，能源和原材料股在MSCI明晟新兴市场市值中的权重超过三分之一，而科技企业的权重仅为十分之一。上个月，大宗商品板块在新兴市场市值中的权重仅为八分之一，科技企业的权重超过四分之一。

This should be no surprise. EM tech companies include the Chinese internet trio of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu and longer-established names such as Hon Hai and TSMC of Taiwan and Samsung Electronics of South Korea. Stocks from those three countries have delivered more than 70 per cent of the gains in the MSCI EM index this year.

这一点也不奇怪。新兴市场科技企业包含中国互联网三巨头腾讯(Tencent)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和百度(Baidu)，以及一些更老牌的公司，如台湾的鸿海(Hon Hai)和台积电(TSMC)，韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics)。今年，这三个地区的股票对MSCI明晟新兴市场指数上涨的贡献达到70%以上。

At the other extreme, commodities companies have been slammed by falling prices, not to mention the corruption scandal that has engulfed Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company that together with miner Vale once carried half the S?o Paulo Bovespa index on its back.

在另一端，大宗商品价格不断下跌重创大宗商品企业，更不用提巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)陷入的腐败丑闻。该公司和矿商淡水河谷(Vale)曾经撑起了巴西圣保罗IBOVESPA指数的半壁江山。

Accompanying the rise of EM tech has been the enduring strength of consumer discretionary and financials, which together make up more than a third of MSCI EM.

伴随新兴市场科技股崛起的是，非必需消费品股票和金融股持续表现强劲，它们共同占据了MSCI明晟新兴市场指数的三分之一以上权重。

Put it all together, and the asset class looks more like a play on the manufacturing and consumer dynamism currently making Asia the world’s fastest growing region than on the commodities demand from China that drove EM growth in the first dozen years of this century.

放在一起来看，新兴市场这一资产类别的重头戏更像是制造业发展和消费活力，而不是中国对大宗商品的需求（这种需求在本世纪头十几年中驱动了新兴市场增长）。制造业发展和消费活力目前正在让亚洲成为全世界增长最快的地区。

But not so fast. First of all, Asia’s dynamics may not last. While trade within the region has grown strongly, its exports also depend on demand from the US and Europe. While the US consumer is expected to spring to life with every passing day, she has so far failed to do so.

但这话也不能说得太早。首先，亚洲的活力可能无法持久。尽管亚洲内部贸易强劲增长，但其出口也依赖于美国和欧洲的需求。尽管美国有望逐渐恢复消费活力，但目前为止尚未实现。

More broadly, global trade has disappointed. Data from the CPB World Trade Monitor, a widely respected unit within the Dutch ministry of economic affairs, show a surge in global trade between May 2016 and January this year — strongly positive news for EMs. But the momentum of trade growth has faded this year and the latest CPB data, out last week, show it falling back towards zero.

整体来看，全球贸易状况令人失望。荷兰经济政策分析部(CPB)《全球贸易监控》(World Trade Monitor)的数据表明，2016年5月至2017年1月之间，全球贸易出现增长——这对新兴市场来说是个重大利好消息。但今年这种贸易增长的势头已经减弱，CPB上周公布的最新数据表明，贸易增长已经回落至接近零。CPB是荷兰经济事务部(Dutch ministry of economic affairs)的一个广受尊重的部门。

Nor are EMs free of the commodity curse. Even today, energy and materials companies play a far bigger role in the MSCI EM index than the direct contribution they make to their home countries’ economies. But they also have a powerful multiplier effect on other business sectors.

新兴市场也还未摆脱大宗商品的诅咒。即使在如今，能源和原材料企业在MSCI明晟新兴市场指数中扮演的角色，也远超它们对本国经济的直接贡献。但它们还对其他行业拥有强大的乘数效应。

Adam Slater, chief economist at Oxford Economics, points out that, in the past, falling commodity prices would have been net positive for global growth: the losses suffered in commodity exporting countries would be more than offset by rising consumption and investment in commodity importers.

牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的首席经济学家亚当?斯莱特(Adam Slater)指出，过去大宗商品价格下滑总体来说有利于全球经济增长：大宗商品进口国的消费和投资增长，足以抵消大宗商品出口国承受的损失。

This time, that hasn’t happened. It may be that commodity prices have fallen too far from their peaks and that a host of investments have lost their viability. Consumption seems to have been curtailed by fear of the future in a low interest rate world.

这一次，情况不是这样。可能的情况是，大宗商品价格较峰值下跌太多，大量投资都失去了可行性。对低利率时代中未来的恐惧，似乎遏制了消费。

This does not mean the EM rally will end now. EM assets were hammered during 2014 and 2015, by the commodities crash and by fear of a hard landing in China. Now, the EM/DM growth differential has reverted to the mean and EMs are again outperforming. But investors should still beware the signs of froth.

这并不意味着新兴市场反弹将就此结束。2014年至2015年，大宗商品价格崩盘以及对中国经济硬着陆的担忧，打击了新兴市场资产。如今，新兴市场与发达市场的增长差距回归均值，新兴市场再次跑赢发达市场。但投资者仍然应该留心泡沫出现的迹象。