穆迪下调评级凸显中国面临的挑战

Less than two weeks after China said it would open its domestic market to US rating agencies, Moody’s cut its credit rating for the first time in a quarter of a century.

就在中国表示会向美国评级机构开放国内市场不到两周后，穆迪(Moody's)在25年来首次调降了中国的信用评级。

It cited financial and economic risks flagged in recent months by Chinese officials, who were nonetheless quick to criticise the move. There followed automatic Moody’s downgrades of 26 state-owned enterprises with ratings tied to the government’s.

该机构提到了最近几个月中国官员曾指出的金融和经济风险，不过后者很快对穆迪此举提出了批评。之后，穆迪自动下调了26个评级与中国政府挂钩的国有企业的评级。

But while Moody’s decision yesterday will complicate efforts to attract foreign investors to the third-largest bond market, investors said it was unlikely to have a significant impact.

不过，尽管穆迪昨天的决定将加大吸引外国投资者进入中国这一全球第三大债市的复杂性，投资者表示此举不太可能产生重大影响。

The immediate reaction on China’s bond market was limited because domestic investors, which dominate, pay scant attention to foreign ratings. After a surge at the open, yields on benchmark five-year government bonds returned to 3.8 per cent.

中国债市的即时反应十分有限，原因是占主导地位的国内投资者很少注意国外评级。在一开始飙升之后，基准的五年期国债收益率又回落到3.8%。

Foreign penetration remains tiny, with overseas investors owning about Rmb424bn ($61.5bn) of government bonds at the end of April, equal to just 4 per cent of the outstanding total, according to China Central Depository and Clearing.

根据中国中央国债登记结算公司(China Central Depository and Clearing Corporation)的数据，境外投资者的渗透率依然很低，4月底他们持有的国债约为4240亿元人民币（合615亿美元），只相当于国债总余额的4%。

But that is expected to change as Beijing takes steps to open the market to foreign capital, including a “bond connect” scheme allowing foreign investors to buy through Hong Kong brokers.

不过，随着中国政府采取包括“债券通”(bond connect)机制在内的措施、向外国资本开放市场，这种局面预计会发生改变。债券通是一种能让外国投资者通过香港经纪商买入债券的机制。

Luke Spajic, head of Pimco’s emerging Asia portfolio in Singapore, noted Moody’s simultaneous decision to soften its China outlook from “negative” to “stable”. “This downgrade does not really derail China’s inevitable integration of bonds and equities with global capital markets,” he said. “That’s a secular story. A punchier move would have been to keep a negative outlook.”

太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)驻新加坡的新兴亚洲投资组合主管卢克?斯帕伊奇(Luke Spajic)指出，穆迪同时还做出了软化其对中国展望的决定，将其从“负面”调整为“稳定”。他说：“这次下调并未真正扰乱中国债市和股市与全球资本市场不可避免的整合过程。这是一个长期过程。假如穆迪保持负面展望，打击会更重一些。”

Many sovereign wealth and pension funds have mandates that require them to invest in bonds above a certain rating. The downgrade puts China’s sovereign rating on a par with those of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic.

许多主权财富基金和养老基金所受委托要求它们须投资于高于特定评级的债券。这次评级下调，令中国的主权评级与以色列、沙特阿拉伯和捷克相当。

China’s non-financial corporate debt is about 170 per cent of GDP, or about $18.9tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

根据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，中国的非金融性企业债务约为国内生产总值(GDP)的170%，达到约18.9万亿美元。

Moody’s action underscores the possibility that if US agencies start rating local bonds, a two-track system will result in which local and foreign agencies apply different standards.

穆迪的举措凸显出这样一种可能性：一旦美国评级机构开始为中国国内债券评级，将导致一种中国国内评级机构和外国评级机构采取不同评级标准的双轨系统。

Dagong Global Credit Rating, one of the four main domestic rating agencies, has never rated China below the US, Japan or Britain. It downgraded the US further in 2010 and 2013

中国四家主要国内评级机构之一大公国际资信评估公司(Dagong Global Credit Rating)，从未令中国的评级低于美国、日本或英国。该公司曾在2010年和2013年进一步下调过美国的评级。

The unhappy response of the finance ministry raises the possibility that foreign agencies could face pressure if they issue a high-profile downgrade of a national champion. Alternatively, foreign agencies could find themselves unable to attract business if bond issuers, which pay for ratings, do not want to face tougher standards.

中国财政部对穆迪此举不愉快的回应，提高了这样一种可能性——如果外国评级机构引人注目地下调一家国家冠军企业的评级，可能会面临压力。又或者，外国评级机构可能会发现自己无法吸引到业务，原因是为评级付钱的债券发行商不希望面对更严格的标准。

The ministry said Moody’s had not given the economy enough credit for its “steady upward momentum”, with first-quarter growth coming in at a higher than expected 6.9 per cent. “This year’s strong beginning shows the achievement of China’s reforms,” it said.

财政部表示，穆迪未能充分认识中国经济的“稳中向好的发展态势”。一季度中国GDP增长6.9%，高于预期。财政部表示：“中国经济‘开门红’充分显示供给侧结构性改革的效果正在不断显现。”

China’s bond market is already in turmoil. Banks and other investors are grappling with new regulations designed to limit the use of borrowed money for bond investment.

中国债市已经处于动荡之中。银行及其他投资者正在竭力应对限制借钱投资债券的新监管规定。

As a result, the yield curve for government bonds inverted in mid-May after a short-term funding squeeze caused investors to dump short-dated paper.

结果是，由于短期资金收紧导致投资者抛售短期国债，5月中旬国债收益率曲线曾出现反转。

Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the Moody’s decision was “sensible” in view of tightened liquidity in China’s capital markets and economic growth that was still at its lowest since 1990. “Bond defaults are likely to rise because of the deterioration in the external environment,” Professor Zhu said.

清华大学(Tsinghua University)金融学教授朱宁表示，鉴于中国资本市场流动性收紧、经济增长仍处于1990年来最低水平，穆迪的决定是“合理的”。他表示：“由于外部环境的恶化，债券违约可能会增加。”

But in a bond market that at its peak last autumn was widely seen as a bubble, some foreign investors consider the shakeout positive.

不过，对于去年秋天到达顶峰时被广泛视为泡沫的中国债市，部分外国投资者认为这轮抛售是有积极意义的。

“China’s recent regulatory tightening should help deflate the country’s credit markets and lead to long-term market stabilisation,” said Luc Froehlich, head of Asian fixed income at Fidelity International in Hong Kong.

富达国际(Fidelity International)驻香港的亚洲固定收益部门负责人卢克?弗勒利希(Luc Froehlich)表示：“中国最近收紧监管，应该有助于为该国信贷市场去泡沫，并有助于长期市场稳定。”