法国大选结果提振金融市场

Relief swept through European financial markets yesterday after centrist Emmanuel Macron made it into the run-off for the French presidency, sending the euro to its highest level against the dollar in five months and shares in French banks soaring.

欧洲金融市场昨日松了一口气，原因是中间立场的埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)进入法国大选第二轮。欧元兑美元汇率达到5个月来最高水平，法国银行股飙升。

French government bond prices also rallied, with the difference in annual French and German borrowing costs on 10-year sovereign bonds — a closely watched indicator of market sentiment — falling to below 50 basis points for the first time since late January.

法国政府债券价格同样飙升，法国和德国10年期主权债券的收益率之差——备受关注的市场情绪指标——回落至50个基点以下，这是自1月下旬以来首次出现这一情况。

Investors said Mr Macron’s victory in Sunday’s first round, with 23.8 per cent of the vote, ensured a candidate with a mainstream economic reform agenda would take on — and be likely to defeat — Marine Le Pen, the rightwing populist urging euro exit.

投资者称，马克龙在周日的第一轮投票中以23.8%的支持率取胜，确保了将有一名主张主流经济改革议程的候选人挑战——并且很可能打败——敦促退出欧元区的右翼民粹主义者马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)。

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate with similar anti-EU sentiments, had surged in the campaign’s final days, sending jitters through markets that France could be heading to a showdown between two economic radicals.

带有类似反欧情绪的极左翼候选人吕克?梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)的支持率在大选最后几天飙升，这给市场带来了不安情绪：法国可能面临两个经济激进者的对决。

“The extreme scenarios have evaporated,” said Philippe Ithurbide, head of research for Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager.

“这种极端情况最终没有出现，”欧洲最大的资产管理公司东方汇(Amundi)的研究主管菲利普?伊蒂尔比德(Philippe Ithurbide)表示。

Before Sunday’s vote, the size of hedge fund bets against the euro using option contracts was the largest in six weeks, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，在周日投票前，对冲基金利用期权合约看空欧元的规模达到6周来最高水平。

Mr Macron’s victory also renewed trust in French opinion polling. Projections predicted the former economy minister would make the second round in two weeks and are also forecasting that he will handily defeat Ms Le Pen in the run-off. An Ipsos poll on Sunday showed 62 per cent support for Mr Macron and 38 per cent for Ms Le Pen.

马克龙的获胜还恢复了人们对法国民调的信任。民调预测显示，这位前经济部长将进入第二轮投票，还预测他将在第二轮轻松打败勒庞。周日Ipsos一份民调显示，马克龙拥有62%的支持率，而勒庞的支持率为38%。

In a sign of the rally’s strength, trading was heavy with the volume of French bonds changing hands at four times recent levels. French banks rose nearly 10 per cent, helping the CAC 40 index climb 4 per cent.

突显此轮涨势强劲程度的一个迹象是，交易量很大，法国债券的换手率达到近期水平的4倍。法国银行股上涨近10%，拉动法国CAC40指数上涨4%。

The European advance helped spark a rally on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite index hitting an intraday high and the broader S&P 500 opening up 1 per cent and maintaining those levels throughout most of the trading day.

欧洲的涨势推动了华尔街上涨，纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)触及盘中高点，追踪大盘的标普500指数(S&P 500)开盘上涨1%，并在整个交易日的大部分时间维持了这种水平。

The emerging signs of geopolitical stability — Dutch voters last month returned centre-right prime minister Mark Rutte to office after he beat a similarly rightwing challenger — has allowed investors to refocus on signs of growth in the EU’s common currency area.

地缘政治趋稳的新迹象——上月荷兰选民让中右翼首相马克?吕特(Mark Rutte)重回执政岗位，此前他打败了类似的右翼挑战者——使得投资者把关注点重新放在欧元区的增长迹象上。

Data this month showed unemployment at an eight-year low and manufacturing surveys indicating their strongest output since the eurozone debt crisis.

本月数据表明，欧元区失业率降至8年低点，而制造业调查表明，产出达到自欧元区债务危机以来的最强水平。

“Markets can finally focus on the positive macroeconomic picture of the euro-area: higher growth than the US, a large current account surplus and core inflation turning higher,” said Bilal Hafeez, a Nomura foreign exchange strategist.

“市场终于可以聚焦欧元区积极的宏观经济形势：增长率高于美国，较大的经常账户盈余，以及核心通胀率上扬，”野村证券(Nomura)外汇策略师比拉尔?哈菲兹(Bilal Hafeez)表示。

Against the dollar the euro jumped as much as 2.2 per cent to a high of 1.0935, before giving back some of those gains.

欧元兑美元汇率上涨2.2%，至1欧元兑1.0935美元的高点，随后有所回落。