日本打算重启TPP

Japan is ready to relaunch the Trans-Pacific Partnership minus the US in a shift of position that could bring the huge trade deal back from the dead.

日本准备在美国缺席的情况下重启《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)，这一立场转变有望让这个巨大的贸易协定起死回生。

According to trade officials, Tokyo is ready to proceed without much change to the existing TPP text. Previously, it had been reluctant to expose Japanese farmers to a surge of agricultural imports without offsetting ease of access to the US car market.

 

据贸易官员们介绍，东京已准备好推进这一协定，而不对现有TPP文本作大量更改。此前，日本不愿意在得不到美国汽车市场更便利准入的情况下，让日本农民受到农产品进口激增的影响。

 

The decision could be a huge boon to non-US food exporters such as Australia and could shift the dynamics for trade deals in Asia by offering an alternative to the China-centred Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

 

这个决定对澳大利亚等非美国食品出口国来说可能是一个巨大利好，并可能改变亚洲贸易协定的格局，提供一个替代以中国为中心的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，简称RCEP)的选择。

 

“We will start talks on an 11-member TPP, minus the US, at the [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] meeting in May,” said Taro Aso, Japan’s finance minister, at a recent event in New York. Steven Ciobo, Australia’s trade minister, visited Japan a week ago to discuss a revived TPP.

 

“在没有美国的情况下，我们将在5月份的（亚太经合组织）会议上，就11个成员国的TPP开始谈判，”日本财务大臣麻生太郎(Taro Aso)日前在纽约举行的一个活动上表示。澳大利亚贸易部长史蒂文?乔博(Steven Ciobo)一周前访问了日本，讨论重启TPP事宜。

 

One of Donald Trump’s first acts as US president was to withdraw from the unratified TPP deal. That left Japan as the largest remaining economy. The other 10 members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

 

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)就任美国总统后的首批行动之一，就是退出尚未获得国会批准的TPP协定。这使得日本成为该协定中的最大经济体。其他10个成员国是澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南。

 

Australia wanted to go ahead regardless, but Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, said TPP was “meaningless” without the US, reflecting the loss of a big market for Japan’s industrial products.

 

澳大利亚早就希望继续推进，但日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)当时表示，TPP在没有美国的情况下是“无意义的”，此言反映出日本的工业产品将失去一个大市场。

 

However, several factors have caused Tokyo to rethink. First, says Kenichi Kawasaki, senior fellow at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, is the realisation that TPP offers economic benefits even without the US — and Japan needs them.

 

不过，有几个因素促使东京方面重新思考。据东京的政策研究大学院大学(GRIPS)高级研究员川崎研一(Kenichi Kawasaki)介绍，首先是日方意识到，即使没有美国，TPP也能带来经济效益——而日本需要这些效益。

 

“We cannot expect economic revitalisation without any free-trade agreements,” says Mr Kawasaki. Most of Japan’s putative gains from tariff reduction were due to the US, he says, but those from non-tariff barriers mainly relate to Asian trading partners.

 

“若没有任何自由贸易协定，我们就不能指望重振经济，”川崎说。他表示，对日本来说，来自关税减免的大部分推定收益涉及美国，但是来自非关税壁垒消除的推定收益主要涉及亚洲贸易伙伴。

 

 

 

There is also a geopolitical aspect: TPP will cement Japan’s relations with important regional partners such as Australia and Vietnam. Furthermore, it will keep alive TPP’s tough rules in areas such as intellectual property and government procurement. This will create pressure for higher standards in the RCEP deal, which covers a different set of Asian countries including Japan, China, Indonesia and the Philippines.

还有一个地缘政治层面：TPP将巩固日本与澳大利亚和越南等重要地区合作伙伴的关系。而且此举将保住TPP在知识产权和政府采购等领域确立的严格规则。这将形成压力，要求RCEP协定也达到更高标准，后者覆盖一组不同的亚洲国家，包括日本、中国、印度尼西亚和菲律宾。

 

When Mike Pence, the US vice-president, visited Tokyo last week he declared: “The TPP is a thing of the past for the United States of America.” Despite that, Tokyo remains keen to lure the US back.

 

美国副总统迈克?彭斯(Mike Pence)上周访问东京时宣告：“TPP对美国来说已经是过去的事情了。”尽管如此，东京方面依然热衷于把美国拉回来。

 

“The US may lose from TPP11 [a TPP without the US] because of trade diversion effects,” said Mr Kawasaki. Australian beef and Chilean wine, for example, will be better placed in the Japanese market than their US competitors.

 

“由于贸易转移的影响，美国可能会因TPP11（美国缺席的TPP）吃亏，”川崎表示。例如，澳大利亚牛肉和智利葡萄酒在日本市场可能比美国竞争对手处于更有利地位。