“瘦身”世行对美国不利

Barack Obama missed the chance to renew the World Bank’s global legitimacy, by failing to give up the American monopoly on its leadership. Donald Trump risks further weakening America’s influence on the global financial architecture by cutting the bank’s funding, as his so-called skinny budget proposes.

巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)错失了重新确立世界银行(World Bank)全球合法性的机会，因为他未能放弃美国对世行领导层的垄断。唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有可能进一步削弱美国对全球金融架构的影响力，因为按照他的所谓“瘦身预算案”(skinny budget)，他将削减世行的资金。

Reinforcing the world economy’s recovery is the top priority of central bank governors and finance ministers, who are gathering in Washington for the spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. But Mr Trump’s hostility to both Bretton Woods institutions, embodied by plans to cut the World Bank’s funding by $650m over three years, has shaken confidence.

加强世界经济复苏是各国央行行长和财长的首要任务，他们正汇聚华盛顿参加世行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的春季会议。但是，特朗普对这两家布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)机构的敌意——正如他在三年期间削减6.5亿美元世行资金的计划所体现的——动摇了各方的信心。

Although tensions between Washington and the IMF are acute, the World Bank has the most to worry about. Ordinarily, Jim Yong Kim, its US-nominated president who last year was elected to a second term unopposed, would have used this week’s meetings to lay the groundwork for the first replenishment of bank capital since 2010. Given the signals from Washington, bank staff fear its most powerful shareholder will be in opposition, complicating the task of rallying support for the capital increase from others. For now, it is on hold.

尽管华盛顿与IMF之间的紧张很严重，但世行有最多的事情需要担心。通常情况下，美国提名、去年在无人反对的情况下获得连任的世行行长金墉(Jim Yong Kim)，会利用本周的会议为2010年以来首次补充世行资本进行准备工作。鉴于华盛顿发出的信号，世行员工担心其最强大的股东将采取反对立场，使动员其他国家支持增资的任务变得复杂化。就现在而言，这件事被搁置了。

The timing is unfortunate for the bank. Unless it increases its wherewithal it will have to halt its recent surge in low-cost lending just as emerging market borrowing costs look set to rise. This would mark a further retreat from its central development role.

对世行来说，时机有点不幸。除非世行增加自己的财力，否则就在新兴市场借款成本看起来将会上升之际，它将不得不叫停近期激增的低成本放贷。这将标志着从它在发展事务上的中心角色进一步后退。

It would also mark a further dilution of American soft power. This was already less effective under Mr Obama, whose imposition of Mr Kim over more qualified developing-world candidates weakened the bank’s credibility among poorer nations and drew US leadership into question. This provided more justification for China to usurp the bank’s role by launching competing institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

这也将标志着美国的软实力遭到进一步稀释。这种软实力的有效性在奥巴马时期已经有所降低：奥巴马钦点金墉出任世行行长，而排除更加合格的发展中世界候选人，这种做法削弱了世行在较贫穷国家中的可信度，并使美国的领导地位受到质疑。这为中国提供了更多理由，让中国通过发起亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)等竞争机构，来争夺世行的角色。

Mr Trump has rowed back from his rhetorical hostility to other linchpins of the global rules-based system, softening, for example, his antipathy to Nato. It is to be hoped that he will do the same with the World Bank. It is an institution that needs reform, but emasculating it would only cede yet more ground to China.

特朗普对基于规则的全球体系的其他重要支柱已经收回了一部分批评语调，比如软化了他对北约(NATO)的反感。希望他对世行也会这样。这个机构需要改革，但是削弱它只会让中国夺走更多地盘。

The days when the US could explicitly dominate the World Bank may be drawing to a close. But the cheapest way of projecting power in any case is through consensus, where others pay in too. Multilateral agencies have the added benefit of disguising where true power lies. China has learnt that fast, and is drawing other nations into its own development financing initiatives. Mr Trump’s hostility to the World Bank threatens to move the US in the opposite direction.

美国可以公然主宰世行的日子也许行将结束。但无论如何，投射力量的最廉价方式是通过共识，让别人也掏钱做出贡献。多边机构还有一个额外好处，那就是掩盖真正的强权在哪里。中国已经很快学到了这一点，它正在吸引其他国家加入其发展融资举措。特朗普对世行的敌意可能把美国推向相反的方向。